TheNewsRoom

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Weak growth in New Zealand economy

Economic activity, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was up less than 0.1 percent in the June 2009 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said. This growth in economic activity follows five quarters of contraction in the New Zealand economy.


Activity in the primary industries was up 1.5 percent in the June 2009 quarter, mainly driven by forestry and logging (up 8.0 percent). The increase in forestry and logging production was related to an increase in exports of logs to the People's Republic of China.

Activity in the goods-producing industries contracted 0.5 percent in the June 2009 quarter. The manufacturing (down 1.3 percent) and construction (down 1.9 percent) industries both declined. A 5.9 percent increase in electricity, gas and water partly offset these declines.

Activity in the services industries was flat this quarter. Service industries that increased were real estate and business services (up 1.5 percent) and communications (up 1.7 percent). Offsetting these increases were declines in wholesale trade (down 2.1 percent), transport and storage (down 3.3 percent), and government administration and defense (down 0.4 percent).

Exports up, imports down

Export volumes were up 4.7 percent in the June 2009 quarter, with exports of dairy and wood products the main contributors. Import volumes decreased 3.8 percent in the same period, with the largest declines in intermediate goods, and machinery and plant equipment. The combination of higher exports, lower imports, and a decline in manufacturing led to a large, $1.1 billion run down in inventories.

But nothing has changed for Kiwi families

The patchy picture in the improving GDP figures is still not enough to reassure families struggling to pay their bills and worried about job security, says Labour Finance Spokesperson David Cunliffe.

David Cunliffe said the 0.1 percent economic growth in the June quarter reflected an encouraging upturn in the international economy, “but New Zealand’s main job-creating sectors are still falling or flat at best.

Despite Bill English proclaiming that recovery needs to be export-led, the Government has done nothing to lead growth in the export and productive sectors. Manufacturing fell 1.3 percent, and the rise in forestry exports was based on raw logs. The Government should take seriously the need to create jobs and add value within New Zealand.

Unemployment rate surges

Jobless numbers have made the highest quarterly jump for more than 20 years as the recession finally translated into mass job losses. The number of unemployed jumped from 5 percent to 6 percent of the workforce in the June quarter, according to Statistics New Zealand’s Household Labour Force Survey.

In overall numbers unemployment increased by 24,000 people, taking the number of unemployed to 138,000, the highest number since the Asian Crisis recession which tailed off in June 1999. The bulk of the drop off in numbers employed are women – female full time employment fell by 16,000, whereas male full time employment actually grew slightly – but only if part time jobs are included.There is an overall large increase in part time employment. Male part time jobs increased by 0.6 percent to reach 147,000 – the highest number ever. Female part time employment increased by 0.3 percent. The survey also shows a continuation of the jump in the numbers of older people in the workforce. The number of people aged 60-64 in the workforce increased by 10,600, and the number of over 65s grew by 8700. The numbers of young people in employment fell – the 15-19 age group by 23,400. As a measure of economic performance, the number of hours worked has declined markedly – 1.9 percent for the quarter and 3.5 percent for the year.

The Challenge

New Zealand leap-frogged Australia’s unemployment figure, which was at 5.8% in June. Since 2003 New Zealand’s rate has generally been around a percentage point lower than Australia’s but New Zealand has now been in recession for well over a year while recession hasn’t arrived across the Tasman.

The challenge is to come up with a real plan to boost exporters and save and create jobs, as Australia has done. Only then can struggling families and the needlessly unemployed take comfort from what are the first signs of international recovery.